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Vesttoo Publishes US COVID-19 Era Mortality Model and Forecasts

Vesttoo has published its US COVID-19 era mortality model and excess mortality risk forecast for the upcoming years

January 19, 2021
covid-19 mortality, mortality risk forecast
Mortality rates have increased by 10-20% in the US in 2020

Originally published on PRNewswire

Vesttoo has published its US COVID-19 era mortality model and excess mortality risk forecast for the upcoming years. The model, based on historical population and death counts from the past 80 years, showed an increase of between 10-20% in mortality rates in 2020 in comparison with the average historical rates, with the risk of elevated mortality to continue in the upcoming years.

"Using proprietary AI and machine learning risk modeling algorithms, Vesttoo built two stochastic forecasts - one based on historical data until the end of 2019 (before COVID-19), and the other based on historical data until November 2020, with the 2019 model assigning a probability of 0.5% for the outcomes of 2020," said Ben Zickel, Chief Technology Officer of Vesttoo.

The increase in mortality levels are clearly seen below when comparing the 2019 model and the November 2020 model, as well as the impact of COVID-19 on future mortality forecasts, including the current January 2021 third wave of mortality, which as the November 2020 model predicts has high probability to be worse than the previous waves.

Male mortality levels were 10-20% higher in 2020 than 2019 models predicted (female forecasts are similar)
Male mortality levels were 10-20% higher in 2020 than 2019 models predicted (female forecasts are similar)

"Our data clearly demonstrates the extent of COVID-19's devastating effects on mortality, and the likelihood that this trend will persist in the years to come. The insurance industry as a whole has to brace for the years to come by adjusting risk models and capital strategy to combat COVID-19 era stress," said Yaniv Bertele, CEO of Vesttoo.

Mortality forecasts predict elevated mortality risk in the upcoming years (female forecasts are similar)
Mortality forecasts predict elevated mortality risk in the upcoming years (female forecasts are similar)

In order to help insurers combat COVID-19 era stress, Vesttoo structures portfolio-specific mortality hedge programs for cedents, along with a broad Industry Loss Warranty (ILW) program, using the forecasts above as the underlying index.

Vesttoo specializes in data-driven risk management solutions for the P&C and L&P markets, using cutting-edge technologies to transfer general insurance, lapse, mortality and longevity risk to the capital markets.

The company provides insurers and pension funds with affordable, strategic risk transfer to the capital markets, while investors benefit from uncorrelated, high-yield investments with remote loss possibilities.

As a one-stop-shop solution provider, Vesttoo handles every aspect of the deal using its cutting-edge proprietary AI and machine learning stochastic algorithms, creating highly accurate risk models and forecasts.

Vesttoo's advanced risk-modeling technology transforms the way securities are structured, offered, and traded, providing an accessible, flexible, scalable, and affordable streamlined alternative to traditional reinsurance.

Contact us to improve your risk management in the COVID-19 era!

info@vesttoo.com